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Five Random 2022 Global Security Predictions
By Luke Bencie and Kacy Cartmell

If 2020 was the year of the global pandemic, then 2021 could be considered the forgotten year after the pandemic. Rather than hitting a reset button and getting back to work, the previous twelve months could be summed up in one word – lack-luster. Fortunately, we have been granted a new year and a fresh set of calendar months.

Therefore, like any good futurist and/or sage, please allow me to pontificate on my global security predictions for the year ahead.

China vs. Taiwan: To begin with, there is a lingering question as to whether China will finally invade Taiwan. My prediction – not likely.

Since the Chinese Civil War, the People’s Republic of China has made their discontent with the pseudo-independent island to the east very clear. China has asserted that Taiwan is part of China. Taiwan disagrees. Despite only 14 countries in the UN recognizing Taiwan as an independent country, many nations – including the United States – maintain positive relations with the territory. In October, Chinese President Xi Jingping made it clear that he wants “peaceful unification” between Taiwan and mainland China. However, he later stated that China is “prepared to fight a bloody battle against our enemies.”

Despite China’s increasing rhetoric and unabashed desire to become the new world superpower, there are still several logistical, military, and diplomatic issues that would come about with an invasion of Taiwan. Not only would a move on the island be costly (both economically and in bloodshed), but there would also likely be major military powers that come to the defense of Taiwan – such as Australia, India, and Japan (U.S. involvement is still up for heated debate). As for now, China is more likely “saber-rattling,” in an effort to see which countries will take a stand against them… or in an attempt to assert their global dominance.

 

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