Publications & Resources
Five
Random 2022 Global Security Predictions
By Luke Bencie and Kacy Cartmell
If 2020 was the year of the global pandemic, then 2021 could be
considered the forgotten year after the pandemic. Rather than hitting
a reset button and getting back to work, the previous twelve months
could be summed up in one word – lack-luster. Fortunately,
we have been granted a new year and a fresh set of calendar months.
Therefore, like any good futurist and/or sage, please allow me to
pontificate on my global security predictions for the year ahead.
China vs. Taiwan: To begin with, there is a lingering question as
to whether China will finally invade Taiwan. My prediction – not
likely.
Since the Chinese Civil War, the People’s Republic of China
has made their discontent with the pseudo-independent island to the
east very clear. China has asserted that Taiwan is part of China.
Taiwan disagrees. Despite only 14 countries in the UN recognizing
Taiwan as an independent country, many nations – including
the United States – maintain positive relations with the territory.
In October, Chinese President Xi Jingping made it clear that he wants “peaceful
unification” between Taiwan and mainland China. However, he
later stated that China is “prepared to fight a bloody battle
against our enemies.”
Despite China’s increasing rhetoric and unabashed desire to
become the new world superpower, there are still several logistical,
military, and diplomatic issues that would come about with an invasion
of Taiwan. Not only would a move on the island be costly (both economically
and in bloodshed), but there would also likely be major military
powers that come to the defense of Taiwan – such as Australia,
India, and Japan (U.S. involvement is still up for heated debate).
As for now, China is more likely “saber-rattling,” in
an effort to see which countries will take a stand against them… or
in an attempt to assert their global dominance.
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